对物种共发生模型的样本大小考虑
Amber Cowans1, Albert Bonet Bigatà2, Chris Sutherland1
1Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, Scotland, UK.
多物种占用模型需要大量的数据集来准确地推断共发生. 对于物种相互作用的可靠检测,需要足够的地点,特别是对于弱的同时发生模式.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 多物种占用模型对于理解物种相互作用至关重要.
- 收和估计问题通常出现在有限的样本大小.
研究的目的:
- 评估新模型在不同样本大小和相互作用强度下估计共发生的能力.
- 评估模型复杂度 (物种和共变量数) 对估计准确性的影响.
主要方法:
- 模拟研究检查最近开发的多种物种占用模型.
- 采用了标准概率方法和处罚概率方法.
- 多样化的样本大小,检测概率,相互作用强度和模型复杂性.
主要成果:
- 模型性能对样本大小,检测概率和相互作用强度高度敏感.
- 同时发生的高偏差估计发生在<100个地点 (高检测) 或400-1000个地点 (低检测).
- 强烈的共同发生在>200个站点 (高检测) 中是可检测的,但即使在大型数据集中也很少检测到弱共同发生.
结论:
- 可靠地推断物种的共同存在需要比目前常见的数据集大得多.
- 占用模式通常对样本大小具有稳定性,但同时发生的推断不是.
- 该模型可以量化强烈的并发现象,并预测较大的数据集的占用率,但建议小数据集或弱相互作用时谨慎使用.
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