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在深度不确定性下进行洪水风险适应的两阶段稳健决策框架 (2S-RDM)
Jiacong Cai1, Yiding Wei1, Jianxun Yang1,2
1State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210044, China.
Fundamental research
|August 8, 2025
概括
本研究介绍了一个两阶段的稳健决策 (2S-RDM) 框架,用于在深度不确定性下管理洪水风险. 它为长江流域确定了24个强大的混合战略,将工程和软适应措施结合起来.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 风险管理 风险管理
背景情况:
- 洪水对社会构成重大挑战,气候变化预测的深度不确定性加剧了这一问题.
- 有效的适应战略对于管理未来的洪水风险至关重要,特别是在江流域等脆弱地区.
研究的目的:
- 提出和评估一个两阶段的稳定决策 (2S-RDM) 框架,用于制定灵活和稳定的洪水风险管理策略.
- 确定有效的适应措施及其组合,在长江流域深度不确定性下,直到2050年.
主要方法:
- 到2050年,模拟的洪水风险在约60万个场景中,考虑到气候的不确定性,社会经济因素,工业结构和人口老龄化.
- 检查了四种适应措施的有效性:建筑物升高,道建设,人口搬迁和流域保护,包括它们的组合.
- 利用2S-RDM框架,确定符合特定人口影响和经济损失门的强有力的战略.
主要成果:
- 如果没有适应,预计到2050年,长江流域将有0.9至2730万人口,经济损失为338至1985亿美元.
- 在超过80%的模拟场景中,确定了24个全球强有力的战略,将受影响人口限制在<0.05%,经济损失限制在<0.02%.
- 综合工程 (例如,Elevation++, Tunnel++) 与软适应 (例如,Relocation) 的混合策略被发现是最有效的.
结论:
- 2S-RDM框架提供了一个有价值的工具,用于设计洪水适应策略,这些策略在各种场景中都是强大的,对决策者来说是灵活的.
- 混合适应策略提供了一种有希望的方法,可以在深度不确定性下有效管理洪水风险.
- 该研究提供了可操作的见解,以提高长江流域和其他脆弱地区的抗洪能力.
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