预测终身所有癌症风险的个性化概率
Neel M Butala1,2, Noor Al-Hammadi3, Asiri Ediriwickrema4
1Department of Medicine, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, CO.
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
|August 8, 2025
概括
个体癌症风险差异很大,但健康的行为显著降低了终身风险. 未来的查指南应该考虑除了年龄和性别之外的因素,以获得更好的癌症预防策略.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 预防医学 预防医学
- 生物信息学是一种生物信息学.
背景情况:
- 越来越多的患者对癌症查和预防的需求是由技术和直接向消费者营销所驱动的.
- 医生缺乏可靠的数据和指导方针来管理患者关于癌症风险和预防的询问.
- 需要个性化风险评估工具来支持临床决策.
研究的目的:
- 在英国生物银行队列中预测个性化的10年和终身癌症风险概率.
- 评估采用健康行为对降低预计癌症风险的潜在影响.
- 为未来癌症查指南的制定提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用英国生物库数据来建模个性化癌症风险.
- 包括38个癌症特定模型中的118个不同的变量.
- 计算了10年和终身癌症风险,并评估了可修改因素的风险降低.
主要成果:
- 在英国生物库人口中观察到终身癌症风险的显著变化.
- 平均终身癌症风险为男性的29.5%,女性的21.0%.
- 采用所有可修改的健康行为可以将中位数终身风险降低到男性的20.5%,女性的16.5%.
- 年龄组之间10年风险的相当重叠,表明年龄和性别本身是不够的预测因素.
结论:
- 终身癌症风险是高度可变的,强调需要个性化风险评估.
- 健康的行为明显降低了癌症风险,强调了它们在预防方面的重要性.
- 随着证据的发展,未来的多种癌症查指南应纳入超越年龄和性别的额外风险因素.
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