面临风事件的集成电热系统的紧急风险调度
Tongchui Liu1, Zhu Zhu2, Mingyang Liu3
1College of Electrical Engineering, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, 450003, Henan, China. juliasolar@126.com.
Scientific reports
|August 8, 2025
概括
本研究引入了一种紧急风险调度模型 (ERDM),以减轻风引起的综合电热系统 (IEHS) 故障的风险. 该模型将成本降至最低,显示风险系数对系统可靠性和运营成本的影响.
科学领域:
- 工程 工程师 工程师 工程师
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 综合电热系统 (IEHS) 在风等极端天气事件期间易受组件故障的影响.
- 在IEHS中的部件故障可能会破坏基本服务并带来重大风险.
研究的目的:
- 为IEHS开发紧急风险调度模型 (ERDM),以减轻与风引起的部件故障相关的风险.
- 量化和管理在极端天气事件期间潜在的部件故障引起的不确定性.
主要方法:
- 使用边缘时刻构建了一个模两可的集合,以表示组件故障中的不确定性.
- 采用分布式稳定风险机会约束 (DRRCC) 来建模与风相关的不确定性.
- 对于DRRCC,使用了最坏情况下的条件风险值 (WC-CVaR) 的近似方法.
- 引入了平均风险概率来量化机会约束违规风险.
主要成果:
- 案例研究表明,风险系数对ERDM风险概率的显著影响.
- 较高的风险系数会导致风险概率增加,但风险成本降低.
- 在风不确定性下,ERDM有效量化和管理运营风险.
结论:
- 拟议的ERDM是一个可行的策略,用于提高IEHS对风相关干扰的弹性.
- 在IEHS中,风险管理需要仔细考虑风险概率和风险成本之间的权衡.
- 该研究为在极端天气条件下关键基础设施的强有力的决策提供了框架.
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