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时空空间分析和预测公众对中国五大宗教的关注程度
Xianhang Xu1,2, Mohd Anuar Arshad3, Hong Liu4
1School of Management, Chongqing Institute of Engineering, Chongqing, 400056, China. bk1014@gmail.com.
Scientific reports
|August 8, 2025
概括
在中国,公众对主要宗教的关注显示出稳定的年度趋势,季节性转变. 一个预测模型可以有效地预测这些模式,强调了空间分析在宗教研究中的重要性.
科学领域:
- 宗教研究是宗教研究.
- 数字人文学科 数字人文学科
- 地理空间分析是什么
背景情况:
- 数字时代需要通过搜索引擎数据了解公众对宗教的兴趣.
- 对当代宗教研究来说,分析公众对宗教关注的时空趋势至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 检查2020-2024年中国五大宗教 (佛教,道教,天主教,基督教,伊斯兰教) 公众关注的时空演变.
- 利用百度指数数据开发和验证公众对宗教关注的预测模型.
- 将地理信息系统 (GIS) 技术和时空分析纳入宗教研究.
主要方法:
- 使用的百度指数数据涵盖了2020-2024年的数据.
- 应用地理信息系统 (GIS) 技术用于空间分析.
- 采用时空分析和基于SARIMA的预测模型来分析时间动态和预测趋势.
主要成果:
- 公众对大多数宗教的关注每年保持稳定,但显示出显著的季节性和事件驱动的波动.
- 观察到适度的空间变化,区域分布平衡,但有明显的东西集群模式.
- 萨里马模型展示了有效的预测性能,准确地捕捉时间动态.
结论:
- 调查结果揭示了中国宗教公众关注的独特的时空模式.
- 这项研究强调了预测模型和空间因素在理解宗教数字传播方面的实际价值.
- 这项研究为宗教研究,社会学,地理学提供了跨学科的见解,并为宗教组织和政策制定者提供了信息.
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