预测气候变化对巴基斯坦吠叫鹿分布的影响
Muhammad Raqeeb1, Hammad Bin Shoukat1, Muhammad Kabir2
1Department of Zoology, University of Kotli, Kotli, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan.
Scientific reports
|August 9, 2025
概括
气候变化可能会在巴基斯坦北部增加适合吠叫鹿 (Muntiacus vaginalis) 的息地. 保护应专注于预测在未来气候情景下仍然适合的地区.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 保护科学 保护科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化是生物多样性丧失的主要驱动因素,威胁着许多物种.
- 吠叫鹿 (Muntiacus vaginalis) 种群容易受到气候条件变化造成的息地转移的影响.
- 了解息地动态对于有效的保护战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在各种气候变化情景下,评估目前和预测未来适合北巴基斯坦吠叫鹿的息地.
- 确定影响吠叫鹿分布的关键生物气候变量.
- 通过预测息地变化,为保护规划提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用来自远程摄像头 (2021-2023) 的 99 个事件记录来检测吠叫的鹿.
- 在共享社会经济路径 (SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5) 下从WorldClim获得当前和未来时期的生物气候数据.
- 使用MaxEnt软件进行息地适应性建模,经过AUC和TSS指标的验证.
主要成果:
- 降水季节性,温度季节性和年平均温度是关键预测因素.
- 目前非常适合的息地占研究区域的3.7%,85.1%不适合.
- 预计适合息地的净收益,在SSP2-4.5 (2061-2080) 下获得最大收益,在SSP1-2.6 (2061-2080) 下损失最大.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将导致整体净取适合吠叫鹿的息地.
- 保护工作应优先考虑被确定为目前合适且可能保持合适的地区.
- 建议在持续适合的息地进行有针对性的保护,以确保吠叫鹿的长期生存.
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