使用Atangana-Baleanu Caputo运算符的Monkeypox传播动态的分数顺序数学模型
Benedict Celestine Agbata1, Erjola Cenaj2, Raimonda Dervishi2
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science, Confluence University of Science and Technology, Osara, Nigeria. agbatacelestine92@gmail.com.
BMC infectious diseases
|August 9, 2025
概括
这项研究使用一种新的分数顺序方法来模拟麻疹的传播,并考虑了再感染. 调查结果显示,隔离,治疗和公共卫生措施的结合显著制了麻疹的传播.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 分数微积分的计算.
背景情况:
- 猿疫情引发了持续的全球卫生挑战.
- 传统模型往往忽视了再感染和小数顺序动态,限制了准确性.
- 准确的建模对于有效的疾病控制策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和分析一个分数顺序模型,用于的传播动态.
- 将Atangana-Baleanu-Caputo分数导数与一个Mittag-Leffler内核相结合.
- 调查干预措施的影响,并确定疾病传播的关键参数.
主要方法:
- 阿坦加纳-巴莱努-卡普托分数导数的应用.
- 使用皮卡德-林德洛夫方法来确定解决方案的存在和独特性.
- 通过MATLAB ODE45进行数值模拟和灵敏度分析.
主要成果:
- 分数顺序模型准确地捕捉了疾病动态,包括记忆效应.
- 综合干预措施 (隔离,治疗,个人防护设备,接触者追踪,疫苗接种) 显著减少了麻疹的传播.
- 敏感性分析确定了影响疾病传播的关键参数.
结论:
- 分数顺序建模与整数顺序建模相比,提供了对Monkeypox的优越表示.
- 综合的公共卫生战略对于缓解疹疫情至关重要.
- 建议加强准备和针对性干预,以应对未来的传染病威胁.
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