二氧化碳减缓途径和情景:尼日利亚住宅部门的实证研究
Fidelis Abam1,2, Uduma Okoro3, Charles Mbohwa4
1Energy-Exergy, Environment and Circular Economy Research Group (ECRG), Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Calabar, Calabar, Nigeria. fidelisabam@unical.edu.ng.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|August 9, 2025
概括
由于人口和收入的增长,尼日利亚住宅碳排放量正在增加. 能源效率和可再生能源采用等政策干预对于低碳未来至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 能源政策 能源政策
- 气候变化分析 气候变化分析
背景情况:
- 尼日利亚的住宅部门对碳排放的增加做出了重大贡献.
- 经济增长是由人口增长,家庭收入增加和对化石燃料的依赖推动的.
研究的目的:
- 分析尼日利亚住宅部门 (2000-2018年) 的历史能源使用和二氧化碳排放情况.
- 在各种场景下模拟未来的能源消耗和排放 (2018-2050年).
- 确定排放增长的关键驱动因素和潜在的减缓策略.
主要方法:
- 逻辑平均分数指数 (LMDI) 分解用于历史分析.
- 系统动力学 (SD) 建模用于未来的预测.
- 在Vensim-PLE软件中使用国家数据进行验证.
主要成果:
- 从2000年到2018年,家庭能源使用量每年增加7.3%,而二氧化碳排放量增加了16%.
- 排放的主要驱动因素包括家庭规模 (193%),能源强度 (68%) 和燃料结构 (29%).
- 通常情况下的情况预计到2050年碳强度将上升963%;激烈的情景显示,随着化石燃料的削减,排放量大幅减少.
结论:
- 迫切需要协调能源效率政策和可再生能源的整合.
- 化石燃料的逐步淘汰和行为改变对于尼日利亚的低碳住宅转型至关重要.
- 预计的能源强度改进突出了显著减排的潜力.
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