现在预测英国2023/24年麻疹疫情期间的病例和趋势
Maria L Tang1, Ian S McFarlane2, Christopher E Overton3
1Chief Data Officer Group, UK Health Security Agency, London, UK.
The Journal of infection
|August 9, 2025
概括
现在预测模型通过考虑报告延迟,准确地预测疫情期间的麻疹趋势. 这些实时数据对于理解和管理快速变化的公共卫生情况至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生监督 公共卫生监督
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 英格兰在2023/24期间经历了十年来最严重的麻疹疫情.
- 实验室确认的病例数据是追溯的,因为从症状发作到测试结果的延迟.
- 报告滞后时间因麻疹流行率和检测目标而异.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估用于实时估计麻疹趋势的现在预测模型.
- 预测未来病例数据的回填和评估最近的流行病学趋势.
- 为疫情管理提供及时的国家和地区数据.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种通用添加模型,包括报告延迟,位置和每周一天的影响.
- 该模型每周都会重新调整,以提供实时的现状预测和趋势方向.
- 模型性能被追溯评估,使用日志加权间隔得分 (WIS) 和排名概率得分 (RPS).
主要成果:
- 运营和回顾性模型显著优于国家病例估计的基线模型 (42%和41%的日志WIS减少).
- 这些模型还提供了四周趋势 (69%和6%的RPS减少) 的优异国家估计.
- 另一种报告日期索引模型显示了趋势方向的潜力,但落后于趋势变化.
结论:
- 实时现在预测对于在疾病爆发期间快速发展的趋势的信息是有价值的.
- 准确的报告延迟数据对于有效的流行病学建模和监测至关重要.
- 开发的模型为麻疹疫情监测提供了更高的准确性.
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