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威斯康星州的政策改变了手枪购买行为2000-2024年

C W Tomas¹, S Huang², K J Kallies²

¹Division of Epidemiology and Social Sciences, Institute for Health and Humanity, Medical College of Wisconsin; Comprehensive Injury Center, Medical College of Wisconsin.

American journal of preventive medicine

|August 9, 2025

概括

威斯康星州的枪支政策,包括隐藏携带合法化和COVID-19订单,大幅增加了手枪购买. 更高的枪支可用性与枪支死亡人数的增加有关,这凸显了政策关注的必要性.

科学领域:

公共卫生公共卫生
犯罪学犯罪学
流行病学流行病学

背景情况:

全州的枪支政策影响着武器制造,销售和可获得性.
自2011年以来,威斯康星州制定了三项影响枪支准入的关键政策:隐蔽携带合法化,废除手枪等待期和COVID-19留在家中的命令.

研究的目的:

为了检查威斯康星州枪支政策变化对手枪购买的影响.
调查手枪可获得性增加与枪支死亡之间的联系.

主要方法:

使用每月的全国立即犯罪背景调查系统数据 (2000-2024) 进行手枪背景调查.
使用季节性自回归集成移动平均线 (SARIMA) 模型预测背景检查趋势.
与手枪背景调查相关的年度枪支死亡 (威斯康星州暴力死亡报告系统,2004-2021年).

主要成果:

在政策实施后,手枪背景调查的显著增加:在隐藏携带合法化后增加了204.3%,在等待期废除后增加了12.8%,在COVID-19留在家中的命令后增加了78.6%.
在年度手枪背景调查和年度枪支死亡之间发现了强烈的相关性 (r=0.887).
隐藏携带合法化显示,对背景调查增加的长期影响最为重大.

结论:

每一次政策变化都与手枪背景调查的增加有关.
该研究强调了枪支购买趋势和威斯康星州枪支死亡之间的强烈联系.
调查结果强调需要考虑枪支政策对公共安全和死亡率的影响.

关键词:

枪支背景调查枪支背景调查枪支背景调查枪支政策枪支政策纵向分析是一种纵向分析.国家政策国家政策.防止暴力预防暴力

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