国际清洁能源市场中的欧洲转型气候风险定价:量子依赖和方向可预测性的证据
Godwin Olasehinde-Williams1, Seyi Saint Akadiri2
1Department of Management Information Systems Istanbul Ticaret University, Istanbul, Turkiye; Nizami Gajanvi Research Center of Sustainable Development & Green, Economy, Azerbaijan State University of Economics, Baku, Azerbaijan.
Journal of environmental management
|August 10, 2025
概括
欧盟的气候政策在清洁能源市场上造成了财务不确定性. 过渡风险对各行业的影响不均,太阳能和风能易受冲击的影响,而储存和开发商表现出性.
科学领域:
- 气候金融是气候金融.
- 金融计量经济学 金融计量经济学
- 能源经济学 能源经济学
背景情况:
- 全球脱碳行动,特别是欧盟的气候议程,在清洁能源市场引入了金融风险和不确定性.
- 气候政策旨在促进绿色投资,但由于过渡风险,可能导致不对称的定价和各行各业的不同回报.
- 了解这些过渡风险的传播和定价对于市场稳定和有效的气候政策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查国际清洁能源子行业中欧洲过渡风险的传播和定价.
- 分析过渡风险和部门回报之间的非线性和时间变化的关系.
- 确定不同清洁能源子部门如何应对与气候有关的金融风险.
主要方法:
- 采用先进的基于量子的计量经济学技术:交叉量子图 (CQ) 和波形交叉量子相关 (WCQC).
- 利用来自纳斯达克OMX绿色经济子行业指数的高频数据 (2010年10月15日 - 2025年12月29日).
- 分析了不同量度的过渡风险和部门回报之间的依赖结构.
主要成果:
- 揭示了过渡风险和清洁能源子部门回报之间的持久,非线性和时间变化的关系.
- 确定了太阳能,风能,地热和燃料电池的下方和中位数的显著负依赖,表明对下行风险的脆弱性.
- 观察到能量存储和开发者/运营商子部门的上方量子位的轻微积极敏感性,这表明对弹性和适应性有奖励.
结论:
- 在清洁能源市场上,过渡风险的定价并不统一;响应因子行业而异.
- 政策不确定性和企业层面的动态在很大程度上影响了部门对过渡风险的反应.
- 需要特定部门的政策框架,以确保气候雄心勃勃带来稳定和公平的市场结果.
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