河南省电网基础设施安全脆弱性评估的DSRR模型 中国 中国
Lu Liu1, Huiquan Wang2, Jixia Li3
1School of Economics and Management, Shanxi Normal University, 030031, Taiyuan, China.
Scientific reports
|August 10, 2025
概括
现代电网面临来自弱环节的停电风险. 这项研究开发了一个新的框架来评估输电线路的脆弱性,揭示了高风险,并提出了改善电网弹性的有针对性的战略.
科学领域:
- 电气工程 电气工程
- 基础设施弹性 基础设施弹性
- 风险评估 风险评估
背景情况:
- 现代电网很容易因弱环节而发生级联故障,需要进行强有力的漏洞评估.
- 现有的电网脆弱性的方法往往依赖于结构拓或主观评估,缺乏客观的定量分析.
- 输电线路是关键基础设施,它们的脆弱性直接影响整个电力系统的稳定性和可靠性.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一套新的四维电力传输线路脆弱性评估框架.
- 用客观的,基于危险指数的方法量化评估输电线路的脆弱性.
- 确定影响输电线路脆弱性的关键因素,并提出有针对性的缓解策略.
主要方法:
- 概念化了输电线路作为关键基础设施,并开发了一个四维的脆弱性评估框架 (危险,易感性,抵抗性,可恢复性).
- 将自然环境条件,人类干扰,电网运行状态和应急响应能力纳入框架.
- 采用基于危险指数的方法,使用客观权重机制 (法) 来进行定量评估.
- 在中国河南省对500千伏输电线路进行了案例研究.
主要成果:
- 河南省关键电力基础设施的综合脆弱性指数为57.2,表明了高度的脆弱性.
- 显著比例的传输塔被归类为"更高" (19.8%) 和"高" (40.6%) 的脆弱性级别.
- 塔楼之间的可恢复性差异对整体脆弱性评估产生了重大影响.
- 对危险的敏感性表现出强烈的空间和时间异质性,与季节性因素和塔楼位置有关.
结论:
- 开发的框架提供了一个客观的方法来评估电网和输电线路的脆弱性.
- 调查结果强调了针对线路检查和差异化管理的有针对性的战略的关键需求,以提高电网弹性.
- 通过更好地了解输电线路漏洞及其影响因素,可以提高灾难应对效率.
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