气候变化和病毒:用于预测风险评估的环境决定因素
Kyle D Brumfield1,2, Moiz Usmani3, Daniel M Long4
1Department of Cellular Biology and Molecular Genetics, Maryland Pathogen Research Institute, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742.
概括
气候变化加剧了水中传播的病原体的传播,例如Vibrio spp.,增加了传染病的风险. 使用环境数据的预测模型可以帮助预测和减轻这些气候驱动的健康威胁.
科学领域:
- 环境微生物学环境微生物学
- 气候变化影响气候变化的影响.
- 传染病流行病学 传染病流行病学
背景情况:
- 气候变化改变了微生物生态系统,扩大了病原体的范围,增加了传染病的出现.
- 水源性疾病是一个重大威胁,特别是在卫生条件差的脆弱地区.
- 致病微生物是环境循环的组成部分,使得根除不可能.
研究的目的:
- 分析历史数据 (自20世纪60年代以来),以确定致病性Vibrio spp.的环境驱动因素. 发生和分布.
- 为了能够预测气候变化对霍乱和非霍乱病毒感染的影响.
- 探索修改现有模型以预测所有临床相关Vibrio spp.引起的疾病的潜力. 和其它水中传播的病原体.
主要方法:
- 对历史研究的分析,重点关注Vibrio spp.的环境决定因素.
- 微生物学,社会学和天气数据的整合用于预测建模.
- 对Vibrio cholerae现有的预测风险模型的审查.
主要成果:
- 气候变化与增加的Vibrio spp.有关. 在水生环境中扩散.
- 这种扩散与特定全球地区的霍乱和非霍乱病毒感染等疾病的环境传播增加有关.
- 对Vibrio cholerae的预测模型在疫情早期实施时,成功降低了病例死亡率.
结论:
- 菌种群的环境决定因素. 可以识别到预测疾病爆发.
- 从Vibrio cholerae模型中调整的预测模型具有预测各种Vibrio spp.引起的疾病的潜力. 和其它水中传播的病原体.
- 通过预测性智能模型进行预测性决策可以减少与气候变化和水传播病原体相关的感染风险.
相关概念视频
Factors Affecting the Risk of Infection
12.3K
The hosts' susceptibility to infection depends on several factors. The integrity of the skin and mucous membranes helps protect the body against microbial attacks. When the skin is altered, the chance of infection, limb loss, and even death increases.
The integrity and count of the white blood cells help the body resist pathogens and fight infection. When impaired, it reduces the body's resistance to pathogens. The acidic pH levels of the gastrointestinal, genitourinary tracts, and skin...
The integrity and count of the white blood cells help the body resist pathogens and fight infection. When impaired, it reduces the body's resistance to pathogens. The acidic pH levels of the gastrointestinal, genitourinary tracts, and skin...
12.3K
Factors Influencing Microbial Growth: Temperature
189
Microorganisms display remarkable adaptations, enabling them to thrive in diverse ecological niches across a wide range of temperatures. Temperature profoundly influences microbial growth by affecting enzymatic activity, membrane fluidity, and other cellular processes.Each microorganism operates within a specific temperature range defined by three cardinal points: minimum, optimum, and maximum. Below the minimum temperature, membranes lose fluidity, halting transport processes. Above the...
189
Global Climate Change
24.8K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
24.8K
What is Climate?
18.8K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
18.8K
Factors Influencing Microbial Growth: pH
208
Microorganisms are classified as acidophiles, neutrophiles, or alkaliphiles based on their pH growth preferences, reflecting their adaptations to specific environments. Maintaining a stable intracellular pH is critical for macromolecular stability and enzymatic activity, which can be challenged by external pH variations.Neutrophiles, such as Escherichia coli, grow optimally between pH 5.5 and 8.0. These microorganisms inhabit neutral or slightly acidic environments and employ mechanisms like...
208
Environmental Applications of Microorganisms
242
Microorganisms play a pivotal role in maintaining ecosystem balance by recycling essential elements such as carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus, as well as supporting processes like bioremediation, wastewater treatment, and biofuel production.Microbes in Elemental CyclesIn the carbon cycle, microorganisms decompose organic matter, releasing carbon dioxide via aerobic respiration. This carbon dioxide is subsequently used by photosynthetic organisms to synthesize organic compounds, closing the...
242


