使用灰色马尔科夫模型对宏观建筑安全指标的时间序列预测
Zhipeng Zhou1, Song Liu1, Sainan Lyu2
1Department of Management Science and Engineering, College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, China.
概括
灰色的Verhulst-Markov模型 (GVMM) 有效地预测了中国的建筑安全趋势. 这种先进的模型准确地预测了事故率和死亡人数,为行业安全管理提供了强大的工具.
科学领域:
- 建筑安全管理 建筑安全管理
- 预测建模预测建模
- 灰色系统理论 灰色系统理论
背景情况:
- 中国建筑业面临着动态的安全挑战.
- 准确预测安全指标,如事故率和死亡人数至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定最适合用于预测中国建筑业动态安全情况的灰色马尔科夫模型.
- 评估五种不同的灰色马尔科夫模型对关键安全指标的预测准确度.
主要方法:
- 五个灰色马尔科夫模型的比较分析:灰色维赫尔斯特-马尔科夫模型 (GVMM),偶灰色马尔科夫模型 (EGMM),离散灰色马尔科夫模型 (DGMM),原始差异灰色马尔科夫模型 (ODGMM) 和偶差异灰色马尔科夫模型 (EDGMM).
- 使用宏观建筑安全指标对预测性表现的评估:每1000万元人民币的事故率和每1000万元人民币的死亡人数.
主要成果:
- 与其他四种模型相比,灰色的Verhulst-Markov模型 (GVMM) 在两个安全指标方面都显示出明显优异的预测准确性.
- GVMM被证明是分析和预测安全趋势的强大和有效工具.
结论:
- 建议GVMM作为预测中国建筑行业在宏观层面上的动态安全条件和未来趋势的最佳方法.
- 这一发现为加强该行业的安全管理策略提供了有价值的见解.
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