人口老龄化对血液感染流行病学和结果的影响:机器学习和统计建模研究
Min Hyuk Choi1, Dokyun Kim1, Jihoon Yoon1
1Department of Laboratory Medicine, Gangnam Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea; Research Institute of Bacterial Resistance, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
概括
人口老龄化改变了血液感染 (BSI) 的病原体和结果. 晚年增加死亡风险,特别是真菌感染,需要针对老年人量身定制的治疗.
科学领域:
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 老年病的医生 老年病的医生
背景情况:
- 人口老龄化是一个影响医疗保健的全球趋势.
- 血流感染 (BSI) 具有重大风险,特别是在老年人中.
- 了解BSI病原体的与年龄相关的转变对于有效管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 检查人口老龄化如何影响导致BSI的病原体的分布.
- 调查衰老对BSI患者临床结果和死亡率的影响.
- 确定致病原体的趋势及其与老龄化人口死亡率的关联.
主要方法:
- 分析了来自韩国大学医院的37,100名成年BSI病例 (2006-2023年).
- 应用统计和机器学习 (ML) 模型来评估时间趋势和与年龄相关的病原体变化.
- 评估与BSI患者30天死亡率相关的因素.
主要成果:
- 患者平均年龄为64.6岁,55.7%为65岁或以上.
- 高龄与由于病原体分布的变化而增加的30天死亡率相关.
- ML模型预测了来自大肠杆菌,E. faecalis,CoNS和真菌的增加的BSI,以及来自S. aureus,链球菌,P. aeruginosa和Acinetobacter spp.的减少的BSI. 随着年龄的增长.
- 菌病显示出最高的调整后死亡率;大肠杆菌的死亡率优势随着第三代抗素耐药性的出现而下降.
结论:
- 人口老龄化显著改变BSI流行病学和患者的结果.
- 量身定制的抗微生物管理和感染控制策略对于老龄化人口中管理BSI至关重要.
- 这些发现凸显了对适应性医疗保健方法的需求,以应对老年人传染病负担的不断变化.
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