排除的问题:为什么法医比较需要假负率
1University of Pennsylvania, Department of Criminology and Department of Statistics and Data Science, United States of America.
Forensic science international. Synergy
|August 12, 2025
概括
法医枪支比较往往忽视了从排除中得到的假负误差. 这项研究强调了需要严格的验证和透明的错误报告删除,以确保准确性和防止错误的排除.
科学领域:
- 法医科学 法医科学 法医科学
- 枪支和工具标记检查的检查
- 证据分析 证据分析
背景情况:
- 最近的法医科学改革优先考虑减少假阳性错误.
- 在枪支比较中的排除,通常基于阶级特征或主观判断,缺乏足够的经验审查.
- 消除错误的虚假负面错误的可能性很大,特别是在封闭池的可疑场景中,它们可以作为事实上的排除.
研究的目的:
- 为了检查在法医枪支比较中被忽视的虚假负面错误的风险.
- 倡导消除结论的经验验证和透明的错误率报告.
- 提出政策建议,以改善枪支比较的科学处理和法律解释.
主要方法:
- 对法医枪支比较方法现有有效性研究的审查.
- 分析有关法医科学实践的专业指南和政府报告.
- 批判性地检查"常识"消除的科学基础和上下文偏见的影响.
主要成果:
- 许多有效性研究主要报告假阳性率,忽略假阴性率,导致对方法准确性的评估不完全.
- 专业指南 (例如,AFTE) 和主要报告 (例如,NAS,PCAST) 通常会加强错误报告中的这种不对称性.
- 排除,特别是那些基于没有经验支持的直观判断的排除,带来了未测量的错误的重大风险.
结论:
- 在枪支比较中的排除要求与识别一样严格的验证和透明的错误报告.
- 应该阻止主观或"常识"消除的使用,以支持经验支持的方法.
- 政策改革是必要的,以确保对错误率的平衡报告,并防止在法律环境中滥用消除.
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