从1990年到2021年对药物使用障碍的全球负担,以及到2046年的预测
Chen Dongying1, Sun Yanyan1, Li Xiaowu2,3,4
1Department of Anesthesia, Shenzhen University General Hospital, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, China.
Frontiers in public health
|August 12, 2025
概括
药物使用障碍 (DUDs) 在全球范围内正在增加,其发病率和死亡率显著上升. 阿片类药物和可卡因使用障碍是主要的驱动因素,不成比例地影响男性和年轻人群.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 药物成科学 药物成科学
背景情况:
- 药物使用障碍 (DUDs) 构成了全球相当大的健康负担.
- 现有的研究缺乏对DUD分布,驱动因素和未来趋势的全面时空分析.
研究的目的:
- 为了调查DUDs在全球的时空分布.
- 确定导致DUDs流行的主要驱动因素.
- 预测DUD负担的未来趋势.
主要方法:
- 利用了2021年全球疾病,伤害和风险因素研究 (GBD) 的数据.
- 雇佣年龄期队列 (APC) 分析,分解分析和边界分析.
- 应用了Nordpred和贝叶斯年龄周期队列 (BAPC) 模型来预测负担.
主要成果:
- 全球DUD的患病率在2021年达到5300万以上,比1990年增加了35.50%,死亡率大幅上升.
- 阿片类药物和可卡因使用障碍是增加DALY的主要原因;人口增长是关键因素.
- 在男性和15-39岁之间观察到较高的DUDs负担,在社会人口统计指数地区持续存在的健康不平等.
结论:
- DUDs是一个不断发展和持续的全球健康挑战.
- 需要进一步研究年龄,性别,社会经济因素和药物政策的相互作用.
- 有效的全球战略需要对这些复杂的关系有细微的了解.
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