波多黎各的外流:长期的经济逆风证明比马里亚风更强大
Alexis R Santos-Lozada1, Matt Kaneshiro2, Collin McCarter3
1Department of Human Development and Family Studies, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA.
Population and environment
|August 12, 2025
概括
波多黎各 波多黎各 波多黎各
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 灾难恢复 灾难恢复
背景情况:
- 风玛丽亚在波多黎各造成了广泛的破坏,影响了基本服务,需要恢复计划.
- 评估灾害影响和指导恢复工作的高质量数据以前很少.
- 长度人口和经济数据现在可用于分析灾害后的人口变化.
研究的目的:
- 分析波多黎各在"玛丽亚"风之后的长期人口变化.
- 区分经济因素与风事件对人口动态的影响.
- 使用航空旅客数据估计2010年至2018年间的净迁移模式.
主要方法:
- 使用跨越"玛丽亚"风的纵向人口和经济数据.
- 分析与风和经济事件有关的人口和就业趋势.
- 检查风玛丽亚前后的航空乘客旅行数据,以计算净迁移.
主要成果:
- 人口变化对就业冲击比对风事件更敏感.
- 在"玛丽亚"风之后,外迁人口显著增加.
- 在2018年初观察到回归移民,这表明临时流离失所.
- 经济斗争被认为是净移民的主要驱动因素.
结论:
- 经济刺激对于波多黎各的长期复苏和人口稳定至关重要.
- 与风相关的外迁似乎主要是暂时的.
- 政策干预应优先考虑经济发展,以减轻持续的外迁.
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