使用个体级数据的贝叶斯成本效益分析对在逻辑正常模型中成本标准偏差上选择均价值的选择敏感
Xiaoxiao Ling1,2, Andrea Gabrio3, Gianluca Baio4
1Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford, OX2 6GG, UK. x.ling.17@ucl.ac.uk.
PharmacoEconomics
|August 12, 2025
概括
贝叶斯成本效益分析 (CEA) 可能对先前的选择敏感. 对于日志成本标准偏差使用广泛的统一先验可能会影响CEA的结论,特别是零成本数据.
科学领域:
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
背景情况:
- 贝叶斯成本效益分析 (CEA) 需要预先分配参数估计.
- 在CEA中,Log-Normal分布通常用于建模成本.
- 对成本的日志尺度标准偏差的广泛统一先验是常见的,但其影响尚不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 在贝叶斯式CEA中探索统一先验对日志-正常分布成本数据成本标准偏差的影响.
- 评估先前的选择如何影响CEA结论,当成本是日志正常分布.
主要方法:
- 分析了来自随机对照试验的个体级成本效益数据.
- 成本和质量调整寿命年 (QALYs) 分别使用Log-Normal和Beta分布建模.
- 对于日志尺度标准偏差,应用了具有变化的上限的均先验,并与其他分布假设和模拟研究进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 在日志成本标准偏差上选择统一的先验可以显著改变日志-正常模型中的成本估计.
- 这些波动可能会影响决定干预措施的成本效益.
- 在成本数据中存在零值似乎加剧了这些影响.
结论:
- 贝叶斯式CEA结果可以对Log-Normal模型中对日志成本标准偏差的统一先验的上限敏感.
- 使用具有较大的上限的均分布时,特别是在零值成本数据时,建议谨慎使用.
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