气候变暖推动了资源的冲动和疾病爆发风险的风险
Rémi Fay1, Marlène Gamelon1, Thibaud Porphyre1
1Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Évolutive, Unité Mixte de Recherche (UMR) 5558, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, CNRS, VetAgro Sup, Villeurbanne, France.
Proceedings. Biological sciences
|August 12, 2025
概括
气候变暖可能会减少非洲猪瘟 (ASF) 的传播,通过减少病毒的存活率和增加野猪的食物资源. 气候对粮食供应的间接影响可以比直接影响更能改变疾病动态.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候变化 气候变化
背景情况:
- 气候直接影响病原体的生存和宿主繁殖,影响疾病的传播.
- 间接的气候影响,通过食物资源对宿主群体的介导,在疾病建模中经常被忽视.
- 树的生产是野猪的主要食物来源,是温度依赖的.
研究的目的:
- 从理论上探讨气候变暖对非洲猪瘟 (ASF) 野生猪 (Sus scrofa) 动态的影响.
- 考虑温度对疾病传播的直接和间接影响.
- 评估直接与间接气候影响对流行病传播的相对重要性.
主要方法:
- 利用基于个人的模型进行理论探索.
- 模拟的气候变暖场景.
- 包含了对病毒持久性的直接影响和通过温度介导的子生产的间接影响.
主要成果:
- 气候变暖直接减少了ASF病毒的环境持久性.
- 温度升高会增加子的生长,对野猪种群产生积极影响.
- 综合效应表明,在未来更温暖的气候下,ASF传播可能会减少.
结论:
- 气候变化的间接,以食物为媒介的影响可以显著影响流行病的动态,可能超过直接影响.
- 准确预测未来的流行病风险需要对生态系统有全面的了解,包括所有气候影响.
- 未来的气候变化可能会改变野猪种群中的ASF传播模式,强调需要综合生态和流行病学模型.
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