在多种情景下,对气排放对土地利用变化的反应和江西省的驱动力分析
Chun Fu1,2,3, Libin Xiang4,5, Yezhong Liu1,2
1School of Infrastructure Engineering, Nanchang University, Nanchang, 330031, China.
Scientific reports
|August 12, 2025
概括
中国的经济增长推动了土地利用变化和污染. 这项在江西省的研究使用模拟模型在不同的土地使用场景下预测未来的气排放,确定缓解策略的关键驱动因素.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 地理空间分析的研究.
背景情况:
- 中国经济增长的加速导致了大量的非点源污染,威胁到生态安全.
- 江西省是长江流域的关键生态区,面临着日益严重的污染挑战.
- 了解土地使用动态及其对气排放的影响对于区域环境管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析2000年至2020年江西省的时空空间土地使用动态.
- 根据2030年的各种情景,预测未来的土地使用模式和气排放.
- 确定影响污染和空间异质性的主要驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 历史土地使用变化的统计分析和过渡矩阵 (2000-2020年).
- 土地利用模拟 (PLUS) 模型用于多种场景的土地使用预测 (自然发展,生态保护,城市扩张).
- 生态系统服务和权衡的综合评估 (InVEST) 模型用于气排放模拟.
- 最佳参数地理探测器用于量化驾驶机制.
主要成果:
- 在2000年至2020年期间,超过2588平方公里的耕地和森林土地被转化为建筑用地.
- 预计生态保护场景将减缓建筑用地增长,增加生态用地.
- 从2000年到2020年,总气排放量呈上升,然后下降,预计2030年的排放量因场景而异 (4.595.05 × 104).
- 耕地使用强度是气排放空间异质性的主要驱动因素.
结论:
- 土地利用变化对江西省的污染动态产生了重大影响.
- 生态保护场景为减轻气排放提供了一个可行的策略.
- 优化土地利用模式,特别是耕地强度,是有效控制污染的关键.
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