从1990年到2021年,吸烟导致的大动脉动脉瘤负担的全球趋势和不平等,未来的预测
Shuai Zhang1, Zhaohui Hua1, Zhen Li1
1Department of Endovascular Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China.
Frontiers in public health
|August 13, 2025
概括
尽管吸烟率在下降,但与吸烟相关的大动脉动脉瘤 (AA) 的绝对负担在全球范围内有所增加,差异很大. 有针对性的烟草控制和血管健康干预措施对于缓解这种日益严重的公共卫生挑战至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 血管医学 血管医学
背景情况:
- 吸烟是大动脉动脉瘤 (AA) 的主要可改变的风险因素,这是一个重大的全球健康问题.
- 尽管取得了进展,但由于人口老龄化和社会经济差异,AA的整体负担,特别是与吸烟有关的病例,仍然在增加.
研究的目的:
- 利用全球疾病负担研究数据,分析1990年至2021年与吸烟相关的AA负担的全球趋势.
- 调查社会经济决定因素对AA死亡率和残疾调整寿命年 (DALYs) 的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用2021年全球疾病负担 (GBD) 数据来评估年龄标准化死亡率 (ASMR) 和DALY率 (ASDR).
- 采用Joinpoint回归,年龄周期队列建模,分解分析,斯皮尔曼相关性和ARIMA建模用于趋势分析和预测.
- 分析了不同性别,年龄组和社会人口统计指数 (SDI) 水平的趋势.
主要成果:
- 观察到年龄标准化AA比率的全球下降,但绝对负担增加,男性和老年人的比率更高.
- 低SDI地区显示AA负担上升,与高收入地区的下降趋势形成鲜明对比,这是由人口增长和老龄化推动的.
- 在社会经济发展方面注意到值效应,在社会经济发展方面,AA负担最初随着SDI的增加而增加,然后下降,突出了卫生系统和烟草控制的作用.
结论:
- 针对性,以公平为重点的烟草控制战略对于应对与吸烟相关的AA日益增加的负担至关重要.
- 必须优先考虑血管健康干预措施,以减轻AA不断变化的全球影响,特别是在脆弱人群中.
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