民主效应:一个基于权重的估计策略
Pedro Dal Bó1, Andrew Foster2, Kenju Kamei3
1Brown University and NBER.
概括
与强加的政策相比,民主可以提高政策的有效性. 使用人口流行权重的新估计策略简化了分析,并在特定条件下消除了选择效应.
科学领域:
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 实验经济学是一种实验经济学.
- 政治经济学的政治经济学.
背景情况:
- 民主的政策选择可能会产生比外部施加更大的效果.
- 以前的估计策略需要来自外部治疗的详细投票数据.
研究的目的:
- 为民主效应引入一个更简单的估计策略.
- 消除在民主制度下评估政策有效性的选择效应.
- 将新策略应用于现有和新型实验数据.
主要方法:
- 开发使用人口流行率的基于权重的估计器.
- 导出新估计器的统计分布.
- 将估计器应用于Dal Bó等人. (2010) 数据和一个新的实验.
主要成果:
- 新策略通过消除对外处理投票数据的需求,简化了估计.
- 在Dal Bó等人身上发现了显著的民主效应. (2010) 的数据.
- 在新的实验数据中没有发现显著的民主效应.
结论:
- 基于权重的估计策略是分析民主效应的可行替代方案.
- 民主效应的存在可能取决于实验设计和数据的可用性.
- 进一步的研究可以探索选择效应被消除的条件.
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