使用分布和气候模型预测中国未来的热带病风险
Tao Zhang1, Mengshi Yan1, Jiaqi Fang1
1Department of Veterinary Surgery, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, PR China; Heilongjiang Key Laboratory for Laboratory Animals and Comparative Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, PR China.
Preventive veterinary medicine
|August 13, 2025
概括
气候变化可能会改变热带病在中国的蔓延. 这项研究通过将子载体数据与气候模型相结合,预测疾病风险降低的区域,帮助制定有针对性的预防策略.
科学领域:
- 兽医寄生虫学 兽医寄生虫学
- 气候变化影响研究 影响研究
- 疾病生态学 疾病生态学
背景情况:
- 热带病是由Theileria annulata引起的,是牲畜中一次重要的传播疾病.
- 了解气候变化下的空间动态对于有效控制至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了预测中国热带病的未来空间分布.
- 评估气候变化和媒介分布对疾病风险的影响.
- 通过整合载体数据来改进疾病风险建模.
主要方法:
- 开发了两个MaxEnt模型:一个是气候变量,另一个是气候和向量数据 (H. scupense,H. anatolicum,H. detritum,H. asiaticum).
- 在三个共同社会经济路径 (SSP126,SSP245,SSP585) 下,预计2021-2080年的风险区.
- 使用曲线下的面积 (AUC) 评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 整合向量数据显著提高了预测准确度 (AUC:0.874-0.882).
- 目前高风险地区主要位于中国中部和西北部,与H. detritum.有关.
- 未来的情景预测,载体息地和疾病风险区的收缩,在SSP126 (2061-2080) 下减少最大.
结论:
- 矢量分布数据的整合提高了热带病风险预测的准确性.
- 预计气候变化将减少中国的疾病风险区.
- 这些发现支持基于载体生态和气候数据的有针对性的预防策略.
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