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人类排放导致最近北太平洋气候变化的趋势
Jeremy M Klavans1, Pedro N DiNezio2, Amy C Clement3
1Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA. jeremy.klavans@colorado.edu.
Nature
|August 13, 2025
概括
人类的排放,而不是内部过程,正在推动太平洋十年振荡 (PDO). 这一发现挑战了先前的气候模型,
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 大气科学
- 海洋学
背景情况:
- 太平洋十年振荡 (PDO) 是影响北太平洋和周边大陆的主要气候变化模式.
- 之前的理解将PDO波动归因于涉及海洋与大气相互作用的内部气候系统过程.
- 最近的气候事件,如2015年的厄尔尼诺,预计将PDO转移到一个积极的阶段,但几十年来一直趋向于消极.
研究的目的:
- 研究太平洋十年振荡指数 (PDO) 多十年变化的驱动因素.
- 确定人类的排放或内部过程是否导致了所观察到的PDO趋势.
- 重新评估气候模型在模拟强制气候变化的表现.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种新的归因技术,以统计纠正气候模型对强制气候变化幅度的低估.
- 分析了20世纪的PDO指数变化,重点关注长期的负面趋势.
- 应用该技术,将观察到的PDO影响,如美国西部的干旱,归因于人为强迫.
主要成果:
- 包括目前的负面趋势在内的PDO指数的多十年变化主要是由人类的气溶和温室气体排放造成的.
- 目前的气候模型低估了强制气候变化的幅度,掩盖了人为影响PDO的因素.
- 观察到的PDO影响,包括美国西部长期的干旱,主要归因于人为引起的PDO外部强迫变化.
结论:
- 太平洋十年振荡 (PDO) 在很大程度上受到人为因素的影响,这与之前的内部产生假设相反.
- 由于人类排放占主导地位,需要重新考虑气候多十年变化的归因和预测.
- 这项研究强调了需要改进的气候模型,准确地反映强迫气候变化,以进行可靠的区域气候变化评估.
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