未来十年,中国航空的二氧化碳排放和脱碳化战略将不断上升
Jingran Zhang1,2, Jingnan Zhang3, Junheng Yan3
1Harvard-China Project on Energy, Economy and Environment, Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, United States.
Environmental science & technology
|August 14, 2025
概括
中国的航空排放量预计到2035年将增加50%,尽管效率有所提高. 脱碳努力面临重大挑战和财务负担,迫切需要制定可持续航空政策.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 运输工程 运输工程
- 气候变化政策 气候变化政策
背景情况:
- 航空业对全球二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放作出了重大贡献.
- 中国的航空业有望实现大幅增长,面临着独特的脱碳挑战.
- 中国目前的机队规模在2019年为3645架飞机.
研究的目的:
- 为了预测中国航空部门未来的二氧化碳排放.
- 评估技术进步和可持续航空燃料 (SAF) 对排放的影响.
- 评估国际气候法规对中国航空业的财务影响.
主要方法:
- 开发一个综合模型,包括旅游需求,车队营业额和技术改进.
- 预计收入乘客公里和飞机机队扩张.
- 通过提高效率和SAF集成,分析潜在的二氧化碳减排.
主要成果:
- 预计到2035年,中国的旅客公里收入将翻一番,这需要将机队扩展到8,000多架飞机.
- 通过技术和SAF,预计每年可提高2.0%的车队碳效率.
- 到2035年,累计可减少290-460万的二氧化碳排放量,其中技术贡献率为60%-70%.
结论:
- 即使有了减缓战略,中国的航空排放量预计在2035年将超过2019年的水平50%.
- 实施CORSIA和SAF任务可能会使中国花费超过100亿美元 (2025-2035年).
- 紧急制定和实施有效的脱碳政策对中国航空业至关重要.
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