在当前和未来气候下使用MaxEnt的四种侵入性植物的息地扩张机制的比较分析
Mao Lin1, Xingzhuang Ye1, Zixin Zhao1
1College of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China.
Plants (Basel, Switzerland)
|August 14, 2025
概括
这项研究显示,由于气候变化,中国的入侵性亚马兰氏种正在向北扩张,预计到20世纪90年代,亚马兰氏palmeri和亚马兰氏spinosus的息地将大幅增长.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 侵袭性物种管理 侵袭性物种管理
- 气候变化影响评估
背景情况:
- 四种高风险的入侵品种在中国造成了相当大的生态系统损害.
- 关于它们的系统评估和入侵动态,存在一个知识差距.
研究的目的:
- 系统地评估中国高风险的入侵性亚马兰属植物.
- 在气候变化情景下预测它们未来的息地分布.
- 确定它们入侵和扩张机制的关键驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 结合多种类比较分析与参数优化最大 (MaxEnt) 模型.
- 在共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 126/245/585情景下的综合气候,土壤和地形变量.
- 使用曲线下的面积 (AUC) 和真实技能统计 (TSS) 验证的模型准确性.
主要成果:
- 适宜的息地目前覆盖东92°至东129°,北18°至北49°,中国中部和南部有高风险区.
- 温度变量 (Bio6,Bio11) 是主要的驱动因素,高度和UV-B的影响较小.
- 所有物种都显示出向北的分布转移; 预计到20世纪90年代,Amaranthus palmeri和Amaranthus spinosus将大幅扩大息地.
结论:
- 温度是一个关键因素驱动的范围动态的入侵性阿玛兰太科.
- 不同的扩张机制和向北的转移重新定义了入侵走廊.
- 特定于度的监测和适应性管理策略对于减轻气候变化下的入侵风险至关重要.
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