印度洋和太平洋推动的全球极端干旱加剧了几十年的时间尺度
Yihui Xu1, Xiaodan Guan1, Jianping Huang1
1College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.
iScience
|August 14, 2025
概括
全球极端干旱正在增加,原因是十年调制振荡 (DMO),受印度洋双极 (IOD) 和太平洋十年振荡 (PDO) 的影响. 预计未来的气候变化将加剧这些干旱,特别是在澳大利亚.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 气象学 天气学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 21世纪的极端干旱造成了全球农业的重大损失,饥饿和贫困.
- 极端干旱的增加与十年调制振荡 (DMO) 信号相关.
- DMO受印度洋双极 (IOD) 和太平洋十年振荡 (PDO) 的影响,影响全球降雨模式.
研究的目的:
- 调查DMO与极端干旱事件之间的关联.
- 分析与极端干旱有关的大气条件.
- 在气候变化情景下预测未来的极端干旱风险.
主要方法:
- 大气变量的综合分析 (500hPa的地势高度,低水平的风模式).
- 检查历史极端干旱数据和DMO阶段关系.
- 对未来气候预测对DMO加剧的评估.
主要成果:
- 极端干旱与DMO的积极阶段密切相关.
- 500hPa地势高度的正异常和低水平的抗气旋条件是极端干旱时期的特征.
- 预计在未来的气候情景下,DMO将加剧,增加极端干旱风险.
结论:
- DMO是极端干旱事件的关键驱动因素.
- 未来的人为变暖可能会加剧极端干旱,可能会创下空间覆盖率的新纪录.
- 由于DMO效应的加剧,澳大利亚面临极端干旱的风险增加.
相关概念视频
Global Climate Change
24.8K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
24.8K
Threats to Biodiversity
22.9K
There have been five major extinction events throughout geological history, resulting in the elimination of biodiversity, followed by a rebound of species that adapted to the new conditions. In the current geological epoch, the Holocene, there is a sixth extinction event in progress. This mass extinction has been attributed to human activities and is thus provisionally called the Anthropocene. In 2019 the human population reached 7.7 billion people and is projected to comprise 10 billion by...
22.9K
Responses to Drought and Flooding
11.0K
Water plays a significant role in the life cycle of plants. However, insufficient or excess of water can be detrimental and pose a serious threat to plants.
11.0K
What is Climate?
18.8K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
18.8K
Ecological Disturbance
17.5K
An ecological disturbance is a temporary disruption in the environment resulting from abiotic, biotic, or anthropogenic factors, causing a pronounced change in an ecosystem. The impact of an ecological disturbance, which can depend on its intensity, frequency, and spatial distribution, plays a significant role in shaping the species diversity within the ecosystem.
17.5K
Precipitation Processes
589
The experimental conditions in a gravimetric analysis should be optimized to maximize the particle size and purity of the obtained precipitate. Ideally, the concentration of the precipitating reagent should be low with effective stirring to maintain low relative supersaturation for the growth of large crystals. In homogeneous precipitation, the precipitant is slowly generated by a chemical reaction in the solution to avoid local reagent excesses. For example, urea decomposes gradually to...
589


