热燃烧负担的全球趋势,1990-2021年:对全球疾病负担的全面分析研究2021年研究
Yuke Zhang1, Qingsong Chen2, Ru Wang1
1Department of Plastic and Burn Surgery, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
Frontiers in public health
|August 14, 2025
概括
自1990年以来,全球热燃烧负担已经下降,但人口增长阻碍了进一步的减少. 未来的预测显示,发病率正在下降,但患病率和残疾率正在增加,需要针对性的医疗保健策略,特别是在低收入国家.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 全球健康 全球健康
背景情况:
- 热灼伤代表着一个重大的全球健康挑战.
- 了解热烧伤的历史负担和未来趋势对于有效的公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析1990年至2021年全球热烧伤负担.
- 预测到2040年热燃烧负担的未来趋势.
- 确定影响负担的因素和潜在的减缓策略.
主要方法:
- 利用了2021年全球疾病负担研究的数据.
- 使用分解分析来评估促成因素 (流行病学变化,年龄结构,人口增长).
- 应用边界分析以评估基于发展状态和贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列建模的潜在改善,用于趋势预测.
主要成果:
- 在2021年,全球热烧伤发病率为619万例,残疾年数为267万,与1990年相比有所下降.
- 自1990年以来,患病率增加了11.38%,达到约1.0476亿.
- 人口增长被确定为阻碍减轻负担的主要因素;年龄标准化率下降,但未来的预测表明到2040年,患病率和年轻人死亡率将增加.
结论:
- 全球热烧伤负担已经得到了部分缓解,但仍然是一个持续的问题.
- 有针对性的医疗保健措施和社会发展对于管理热烧伤至关重要,特别是在社会人口指数较低的国家.
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