部分和完全疫苗接种效应的稳定性分析和量化使用分数顺序SVIR模型
1Department of Applied Mathematics, Delhi Technological University, Delhi-110042, India.
Mathematical medicine and biology : a journal of the IMA
|August 14, 2025
概括
针对COVID-19等传染病的全面疫苗接种比部分疫苗接种更有效. 这项数学建模研究表明,全面接种疫苗导致更高的康复人口,指导公共卫生战略.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 传染病建模传染病建模
背景情况:
- COVID-19的全球威胁需要有效的公共卫生干预措施.
- 疫苗接种对于控制传染病传播至关重要.
- 优化疫苗接种策略是最大化公共卫生影响的关键.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较全面与部分疫苗接种策略的有效性.
- 分析传染病的新型分数SVIR数学模型.
- 评估疫苗接种对疾病动态和人口恢复的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发和分析一个分数SVIR数学模型与卡普托分数导数.
- 包括部分和完全接种疫苗的隔间.
- 霍林格 III 类型和处理功能的应用.
- 对无疾病平衡 (DFE) 和特有平衡 (EE) 的模型定位和稳定性的分析.
- 在MATLAB中通过数值模拟验证分析结果.
主要成果:
- 当基本繁殖数 (R0) 小于 1 时,疾病自由平衡 (DFE) 在局部异位稳定.
- 地方性平衡 (EE) 在局部上是不对称的稳定.
- 在特定条件下,DFE和EE都在全球范围内异常稳定.
- 数字模拟证实了分析结果.
- 与部分疫苗接种相比,完全疫苗接种策略导致恢复个体的百分比更高.
结论:
- 完全接种疫苗是提高人口康复率的更有效策略.
- 公共卫生政策应优先考虑并强调全面接种疫苗的好处.
- 数学建模为优化传染病控制策略提供了宝贵的见解.
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