全球多危机系统风险评估方法框架
Ajay Gambhir1,2, Michael J Albert3, Sylvanus S P Doe4
1Accelerator for Systemic Risk Assessment (ASRA), Washington, DC, USA. agambhir@asranetwork.org.
Nature communications
|August 14, 2025
概括
人类社会面临着相互联系的全球挑战带来的不断升级的系统性风险. 本研究提出了评估这些多危机风险的新框架,增强了我们的应对策略.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
- 政治经济学的政治经济学.
背景情况:
- 人类社会和生态系统面临的严重风险是由于行星边界的侵犯,不平等,地缘政治不稳定和技术进步.
- 这些相互关联的风险可以相互放大,导致需要彻底评估和应对的系统性风险.
- 系统风险评估的现有分析框架正在不断发展,系统分析和模拟的新工具和模型正在出现.
研究的目的:
- 提出一种在多危机背景下评估系统性风险的方法框架.
- 在系统风险分析的现有方法基础上构建和整合.
- 为应对相互关联的全球危机带来的独特挑战.
主要方法:
- 评估最近发生的两次全球粮食和能源系统危机.
- 开发一种方法框架,包括多危机的特点.
- 从现有的分析框架和工具中汲取并建立.
主要成果:
- 在多危机环境中评估系统性风险的新方法框架.
- 该框架包括探索系统架构,政治经济和转型反应等功能.
- 跨界实践强调非人类生活,跨学科性,多样性,透明度和不确定性沟通.
结论:
- 拟议的框架提供了一个结构化的方法来理解和应对复杂的,相互关联的系统性风险.
- 它强调了考虑系统目标,政治经济和转型途径的重要性.
- 整合不同的观点和透明地传达不确定性对于在多危机中有效的风险管理至关重要.
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