根据CMIP6预测,根据气候变化,预测草甲虫Euplatypus parallelus的全球入侵风险
Maruthadurai R1, Bappa Das2, Parveen Kumar3
1ICAR (Indian Council of Agricultural Research), CCARI (Central Coastal Agricultural Research Institute), Ela, Old Goa, Goa, 403402, India. duraiento@gmail.com.
International journal of biometeorology
|August 15, 2025
概括
由于气候变化,破坏性入侵昆虫Euplatypus parallelus预计将在全球范围内将其适合的息地扩大12.85%. 这种侵袭性害虫害虫是侵入性的.
科学领域:
- 生态学和入侵物种管理
- 气候变化影响评估 气候变化影响评估
- 生物多样性和保护
背景情况:
- Euplatypus parallelus (Fabricius,1801) 是一个重要的侵入性昆虫害虫,起源于新热带地区.
- 这种物种对森林,种植园和果树造成了巨大的经济和生态损害.
- 了解其当前和未来的分布对于有效的管理策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测Euplatypus parallelus在当前和未来气候变化场景下的全球适用性.
- 确定影响害虫分布的关键生物气候变量.
- 为防止E. parallelus.传播和感染提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用MaxEnt模型进行物种分布建模.
- 关于2050年和2070年的当前和未来气候场景 (SSPs 126和SSP585) 的数据.
- 使用AUC,TSS和CBI指标评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 马克森特模型在预测E.平行分布方面表现出高准确度 (AUC>0.95,TSS>0.79).
- 影响分布的关键生物气候变量包括温度季节性 (BIO4),年降水量 (BIO12),以及最冷月份的最低温度 (BIO6).
- 适合息地预计将扩大12.85%,在未来的场景下,亚洲,非洲和南美洲的适合性增加.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将增加Euplatypus parallelus的生物适应性和全球传播.
- 未来的预测表明,适合息地的大量扩张,特别是在热带和亚热带地区.
- 结果为研究人员,政策制定者和利益相关者提供关键数据,以开发积极的害虫管理和控制策略.
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