开发和验证一种新的方法,用于预测在接收废水废水的湖泊中活性药物成分的空间和时间度动态
Mikael Gustavsson1, Ekaterina Sokolova2, Sverker Molander3
1Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Water research
|August 15, 2025
概括
由于活性药物成分 (API) 造成的环境制药污染很难追踪. 一种新的建模方法使用处方数据准确预测水生环境中的API度,有助于风险评估.
科学领域:
- 环境化学环境化学
- 水生物质毒理学研究
- 环境建模环境建模
背景情况:
- 人类对药物的消费导致持续的活性药物成分 (API) 排放到水生生态系统中,主要是通过废水处理厂 (WWTP).
- 通过传统的化学分析,很难评估环境API度的时间和空间模式,这导致风险评估中的低分辨率数据.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种新的方法来估计环境API度的时空变化.
- 直接从人类处方数据中准确预测API水平,以补充和指导环境监测.
主要方法:
- 结合排放和水力动力学建模来预测API度.
- 将该方法应用于接收WWTP废水的瑞典湖泊,分析了500多种处方API.
- 在WWTP废水中对10个API的月度测量验证了排放模型.
- 对湖中的20个API的历史测量验证了完整的方法.
主要成果:
- 排放模型预测了103个测量API度中的102个,其系数为10.
- 与历史测量相比,综合方法预测了73%和99%的API度,分别在10和100的系数内.
- 证明了API度可以在时间和空间的数量级上有所不同.
结论:
- 开发的建模方法提供了对环境API度的准确预测.
- 这种方法可以有效地补充和指导环境监测工作.
- 了解API的时空变化对于有效的风险管理和监测策略至关重要.
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