量化欧洲野火烟雾对短期死亡的影响:在654个连续地区进行的多国流行病学研究
Anna Alari1, Joan Ballester2, Carles Milà1
1ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain; Pompeu Fabra University, Barcelona, Spain.
The Lancet. Planetary health
|August 16, 2025
概括
野火细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 构成比其他来源更大的死亡风险. 忽视这一区别,大大低估了野火烟雾对健康的影响.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 来自野火烟雾的细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 可能比来自其他来源的PM2.5对健康更有害.
- 欧洲关于野火PM2.5对健康的短期影响的数据有限,导致死亡负担估计的不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 调查与野火相关的PM2.5与欧洲死亡率之间的联系.
- 量化与野火 PM2.5 相关的死亡负担,并将其与与火灾无关的 PM2.5.5 进行比较.
主要方法:
- 使用EARLY-ADAPT数据库 (2004-2022) 进行的一项回顾性多国流行病学研究.
- 分析了来自32个欧洲国家的每日死亡记录 (5410万个人),以及与火灾相关和非火灾相关的每日PM2.5估计值.
- 准松回归被用于量化关联,比较与火灾相关的PM2.5相对风险 (RRs) 与总PM2.5.5相比.
主要成果:
- 与火灾相关的PM2.5增加1μg/m3与所有原因 (RR 1.007),心血管 (RR 1.009) 和呼吸道 (RR 1.013) 死亡率的增加有关.
- 与非火灾相关的PM2.5.5相比,与火灾相关的PM2.5相比,相对风险始终更高.
- 使用总PM2.5数据,低估了93%的野火烟雾造成的死亡率.
结论:
- 与野火相关的PM2.5对所有原因,心血管和呼吸道死亡率的影响要大于与非火灾相关的PM2.5.5.
- 目前的方法没有区分野火PM2.5显著低估了与野火烟雾事件相关的死亡负担.
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