评估行为,挤奶系统和环境数据对商业奶牛短期牛奶产量预测的贡献,使用机器学习
J Hooker1, B B de Medeiros1, C Saha1
1University of Georgia, Athens, GA.
Journal of dairy science
|August 16, 2025
概括
将自动化挤奶系统 (AMS) 和反项圈 (SCR) 的传感器数据与天气数据的整合显著改善了牛奶产量预测,特别是在没有历史数据的情况下. 这提高了精确的乳业管理和预测准确度.
科学领域:
- 乳制品科学 乳制品科学
- 动物养殖 动物养殖
- 机器学习在农业中的应用
背景情况:
- 准确预测每日牛奶产量 (DMY) 对奶牛场管理和经济可行性至关重要.
- 环境因素,如热应激和奶牛的行为可以显著影响牛奶的生产.
- 自动化系统提供了大量的数据,但其用于预测建模的集成需要仔细考虑.
研究的目的:
- 调查自动挤奶系统 (AMS) 数据,反动物领 (SCR) 数据和天气数据之间的关联.
- 使用机器学习评估组合不同类型数据对7天平均牛奶产量 (DMY7) 预测准确性的影响.
- 评估环境变量和奶牛行为对牛奶产量预测模型的影响.
主要方法:
- 收集了1,312头奶牛的数据,包括AMS (奶产量,EC,挤奶频率),SCR (反,活动) 和天气 (温度湿度指数 - THI).
- 使用皮尔森相关性和混合模型分析分析了变量关联.
- 训练有素的山脊回归,梯度增强机器和随机森林模型使用各种数据组合 (基础,天气,SCR,AMS等) 预测DMY7. ) 的情况.
主要成果:
- 升高的THI对牛奶产量,反动物和挤奶频率产生了负面影响,同时增加了EC和活动,表明热应激效应.
- 整合SCR和天气数据显著改善了DMY7预测 (R2从0.263增加到0.396),当历史DMY缺席时.
- 包括历史的DMY产生了最高的准确性 (R2 = 0.827),但额外的传感器和天气数据仍然减少了预测错误.
结论:
- 行为 (反,活动) 和环境 (THI) 数据对于牛奶产量预测很重要,特别是没有历史记录.
- 结合来自AMS,SCR系统和气象站的数据,提高了牛奶产量预测的准确性.
- 基于传感器的监测和机器学习的整合是推进精确乳业战略和改善农场管理的关键.
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