从2000年到2022年,县工业构成与工作年龄死亡率之间的关联变化
Xue Zhang1, Iliya Gutin2, Shannon M Monnat3
1Department of Biobehavioral Health, Penn State University, University Park, PA, USA, 16802.
SSM - population health
|August 18, 2025
概括
工作年龄死亡率趋势与制造业以外的行业转移有关. 服务业就业增加了死亡率,而农业就业降低了死亡率,而制造业则增加了死亡率.
科学领域:
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 劳动经济学 劳动经济学
背景情况:
- 劳动年龄死亡率的上升部分归因于制造业的衰退.
- 对于其他行业变化和劳动力市场冲击如何随着时间的推移影响死亡率的理解有限.
研究的目的:
- 评估县级行业组成和工作年龄死亡率之间的临时特定关联.
- 检查这些关联如何在重要的劳动力市场和死亡率事件中波动 (例如,中国震荡,大衰退,阿片类药物流行,COVID-19).
主要方法:
- 利用贝叶斯层次模型分析2000-2022年的县级数据.
- 研究了25-64岁成年人的行业组成和死亡率之间的关联.
- 考虑到空间和时间模式,控制其他县的特征.
主要成果:
- 较高的农业就业比例与较低的死亡率相关,特别是在较晚的时期.
- 制造业就业和死亡福利之间的积极关联随着时间的推移而减少.
- 增加的服务业就业预测了更高的死亡率,特别是在COVID-19大流行期间.
- 专业服务和采矿/建筑行业的混合关联被观察到.
结论:
- 产业组成显著影响劳动年龄死亡率,在不同部门和时间段产生不同的影响.
- 仅仅关注制造业是不够的;更广泛的行业视角对于了解死亡率趋势和差异至关重要.
- 政策和公共卫生干预措施应考虑不同就业部门对死亡率的影响的差异.
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