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量化局部热浪对死亡率的影响:亚太地区的多国建模研究
Junwen Tao1,2, Zhiwei Xu3, Hung Chak Ho4,5
1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.
The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific
|August 18, 2025
概括
一个新的基于健康的热浪定义,即基于健康的过热因子 (HEHF),可以改善不同地区的死亡风险评估. 这种本地化方法提高了对全球热浪对公共卫生影响的理解.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 全球热浪对公众健康构成重大风险.
- 现有的定义缺乏特定区域的健康结果和适应数据.
- 这限制了热浪警告在不同的人口和气候中的适用性.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估一个新的基于健康的热浪定义.
- 评估局部热浪对死亡率的影响.
- 将拟议的定义与现有方法进行比较.
主要方法:
- 利用来自澳大利亚,中国,韩国和泰国的25个城市的每日死亡率和天气数据.
- 开发了一种基于健康的过热因子 (HEHF),采用基于健康风险 (THR) 的分层方法.
- 将特定区域的温度值和适应指数纳入HEHF计算中.
主要成果:
- 与其他定义相比,HEHF与死亡风险增加的相关性更高.
- 它确定了局部,时间变化的温度值,并捕获了持续的死亡风险模式.
- 在所有研究的国家中,HEHF将较大比例的死亡归因于热浪.
结论:
- 开发的HEHF框架为定义局部热浪提供了可通用和基于健康的方法.
- 这种方法提高了对不同地区和气候的热浪对健康影响的评估和比较.
- 这些发现强调了局部化和适应意识的定义对于有效的热浪风险管理的重要性.
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