空海交换系数的新参数化及其对大热带气旋强度预测的影响
Woojeong Lee1,2, Sung-Hun Kim3, Il-Ju Moon2
1Forecast Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Jeju, South Korea.
概括
这项研究引入了一种新的方法,用于参数化空海交流,用于预测热带气旋 (TC) 强度. 新的参数化改进了TC强度预测,通过更好地考虑极端风条件.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 热带气旋 (TC) 强度的准确预测依赖于了解和动量流的空海交换.
- 现有的模型往往在极端风速特征的主要TCs这些流量参数化扎.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证极端风速 (40-75 m/s) 的空海流的新参数化.
- 为了提高热带气旋强度的预测准确度,特别是对于最强大的风暴.
主要方法:
- 在没有直接流量测量的情况下,在强烈的TC条件下开发了一种方法来估计和动量交换系数 (Ck/Cd) 的比率.
- 基于观察到的风速依赖性,为风天气和研究预报 (HWRF) 模型创建了两个修改后的表面层方案.
- 使用理想化的实验和真实情况的TC预测,将修改后的方案 (Cd_DC和Ck_IC) 与原来的HWRF方案 (CTRL) 进行比较.
主要成果:
- 估计显示,风速超过40米/秒时,Ck/Cd会增加.
- Cd_DC方案减少了摩擦散散和海面冷却,导致更强的模拟TC.
- 与CTRL相比,Cd_DC在TC强度预测中减少了平均绝对误差和负偏差的显著改善,这与风Irma和台风Mangkhut相比.
结论:
- 新的Ck/Cd参数化,特别是强风时Cd的下降,提高了TC强度预测.
- 这种方法解决了当前对最强的TC强度的低估.
- 这些发现表明了更准确的热带气旋预报的途径.
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