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根据CMIP6气候情景,评估印度河流域上部的冰川变化和水文影响
Tariq Abdullah1,2, Jasia Bashir1,2, Shakil Ahmad Romshoo3,2
1Department of Planning and Geomatics, Islamic University of Science and Technology, Kashmir, 1-University Avenue, Awantipora, Jammu and Kashmir 192122, India.
iScience
|August 18, 2025
概括
喜马拉雅冰川对上印度河流域至关重要. 根据气候变化情景,预测显示到20世纪80年代,冰川面积将大幅减少,威胁到区域的水安全.
科学领域:
- 冰川学的冰川学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学 水文学
背景情况:
- 喜马拉雅冰川是上印度河流域的关键水源.
- 了解未来的冰川变化对于水资源管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化未来的冰川质量和面积变化在Jhelum子盆地.
- 预测气候变化对冰川供应的河流流动的影响.
主要方法:
- 在SSP245和SSP585场景下使用了13个偏差纠正的CMIP6气候模型.
- 使用温度指数融化模型与现场验证的冰川数据.
- 模拟冰川对预计气候强迫的反应.
主要成果:
- 预计到2080年代,冰川面积的损失将达到34.7 ± 12.1% (SSP245) 和55.3 ± 16.1% (SSP585).
- 预计冰川流量大幅下降.
- 指出对区域供水,农业和水电的严重威胁.
结论:
- 冰川动态必须纳入长期气候适应战略.
- 对冰川变化的可靠估计对于上印度河盆地水资源规划至关重要.
- 由于预计冰川融化,该地区未来的水源安全面临风险.
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