学习的行为回避可以改变水传染性传染病模型中的疫情动态
Anna J Poulton1,2, Stephen P Ellner3,4
1Center for Applied Mathematics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14853, USA. ajp374@cornell.edu.
Journal of mathematical biology
|August 18, 2025
概括
避免动物疾病可能会导致病原体的持久性,特别是学会的行为. 诱导学会避免的管理策略可能会增加疾病的传播,特别是在不太致命的疾病中.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 行为生态学 行为生态学
背景情况:
- 当动物接触到疾病时,它们往往会表现出回避行为,例如青会避免患有细菌菌病原体的区域.
- 一种真菌性疾病 - - 奇特利多米科斯 - - 已导致全球两动物数量大幅下降,这使得它成为疾病驱动行为动力学的关键案例研究.
研究的目的:
- 通过使用数学模型,调查动物回避行为对水传播传染病的流行病学后果.
- 为了比较先天性 (从出生开始) 与学习 (感染后生存) 避开行为的爆发动态.
- 评估旨在诱导学会避免的管理干预措施的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发分区普通微分方程 (ODE) 模型以模拟疾病传播和预防.
- 动态系统理论的应用,包括基本复制数 (R0) 的计算,平衡稳定性分析和分叉分析.
- 模型的参数化,使用两动物中胆菌病的数据来模拟现实世界的场景.
主要成果:
- 疾病持久性 (R0 > 1) 是可能的,学会避免,但不是与天生的避免.
- 诱导学会避免的管理策略可能会无意中导致疾病的持续性.
- 学习避开模型表现出先天避开模型中缺少的复杂的分叉,对于诸如胆菌症等高死亡率疾病的持久性不太可能.
结论:
- 学习的回避行为可以为疾病的持续创造条件,这种情况在天生的回避中没有观察到.
- 虽然管理可以诱导学会避免,但它可能会增加疾病持久性风险,特别是在死亡率较低的疾病中.
- 了解先天性与学会避免的细微差别对于预测疾病动态和设计有效的保护策略至关重要.
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