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使用多种概率方法,估计上克里希纳河流域的极端洪水大小
Preetam Choudhary1, Adani Azhoni2, C P Devatha3
1National Institute of Technology Karnataka, Surathkal, India. preetamjjn@gmail.com.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|August 18, 2025
概括
在上克里希纳河流域的洪水分析表明,超过25年回收期的排放可能会超过河流容量. 这些发现有助于基础设施规划,以减轻洪水破坏.
科学领域:
- 水文和水资源管理 水文和水资源管理
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 土木工程 土木工程是指土木工程.
背景情况:
- 洪水带来了重大的社会和环境风险,需要准确了解其频率和规模.
- 上克里希纳河流域 (UKRB) 近几十年来经历了重大洪水,突出了对局部洪水分析的需求.
- 有效的水资源管理,基础设施规划和风险减轻取决于可靠的洪水预测.
研究的目的:
- 分析洪水频率并预测UKRB子流域未来的峰值排放场景.
- 评估不同概率分布函数在研究区域的洪水预测中的适用性.
- 为基础设施规划和突发洪水风险减轻提供数据.
主要方法:
- 从UKRB的五个测量站中利用跨越50年的 (1970-2019) 年度峰值排放数据.
- 应用了日志正常,Gumbel Max和Log Pearson Type III (LP3) 的概率分布来估计各种返回周期 (2至200年) 的排放.
- 通过Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S),Anderson-Darling (A-D) 和chi-square测试来评估适合性,以确定每个地点最适合的分布.
主要成果:
- 返回期超过5年的排放估计超过了所有五个地点的平均年度峰值排放.
- 超过25年回归期的排放预计将在所有研究地点超过河流的承载能力.
- 在日志常态分布中,最适合的是Warunji和Samdoli,Kurundwad和Sadalga的LP3和Arjunwad的Gumbel Max,与实际数据有很高的相关性 (R2=0.98).
结论:
- 这三种概率分布方法都令人满意地预测了河流排放量,具体分布显示出更好的特定地点适应.
- 预测的峰值排放表明存在严重的洪水风险,特别是在超过25年的回归期,可能超过河流容量.
- 这项研究的结果为未来的基础设施开发和UKRB的洪水风险管理策略提供了关键数据.
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