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气候变化加剧了对载体传播疾病爆发准备的需要.
William S Hart1, James W Hurrell2, Alexander R Kaye3,4
1Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, Mathematical Institute, Mathematical, Physical and Life Sciences Division, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG, United Kingdom.
概括
内部气候变化显著影响载体传播疾病的风险. 这种自然的气候波动可以加速适合疾病传播的条件的出现,甚至在气候变化的影响变得明显之前.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候建模 气候建模
背景情况:
- 载体传播疾病 (VBD) 构成日益严重的威胁,特别是在目前没有爆发的地区,但易受气候变化的影响.
- 预测未来的VBD传播需要了解气候适应性,但当前的模型往往忽略了关键的不确定性来源.
- 内部气候变化 (ICV) 是气候-VBD传播研究中很少被考虑的因素.
研究的目的:
- 评估内部气候变异性 (ICV) 对未来气候适合载体传播疾病传播的影响.
- 突出ICV作为一个关键的,但经常被忽视,气候-VBD建模中的不确定性来源.
- 通过揭示可能更早出现VBD风险来告知疫情准备.
主要方法:
- 气候建模包括排放场景,气候模型结构不确定性和内部气候变化 (ICV).
- 根据不同的未来气候预测,分析VBD传播的气候适应性.
- 评估ICV对气候适应性预测总体不确定性的贡献.
主要成果:
- 内部气候变化 (ICV) 是预测未来气候适合VBD传播的重大不确定性来源.
- ICV可以导致适合VBD传播的气候条件在新的地点出现,比仅仅气候变化预测的要快得多.
- ICV对传输适用性的影响是巨大的,即使考虑到未来几十年的预测.
结论:
- 必须将内部气候变化 (ICV) 纳入气候-VBD模型,以便准确的疫情准备.
- 在不断变化的气候条件下,忽视ICV可能会导致低估VBD风险的时间和程度.
- 需要采取积极的公共卫生战略,以应对因ICV而加速出现的VBD传播风险.
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