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斯瓦尔巴德2024年创纪录的夏天:北极冰川融化的早期观点?

Thomas Vikhamar Schuler¹, Rasmus Emil Benestad², Ketil Isaksen²

¹Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo NO-0316, Norway.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

|August 18, 2025

概括

斯瓦尔巴德的北极冰川在2024年夏天经历了前所未有的融化,损失了大量的冰块. 这次活动突出了气候变化对极地地区和未来海平面上升的加速影响.

科学领域:

冰川学的冰川学
气候科学气候科学
北极研究北极研究

背景情况:

北极地区,特别是斯瓦尔巴德岛,对气候变化非常敏感.
之前的融化季节显示出日益增长的趋势,但2024年标志着一个显著的异常.

研究的目的:

量化2024年夏季斯瓦尔巴德冰川融化的程度.
评估斯瓦尔巴德和巴伦茨周边地区对全球海平面上升的贡献.
在当前的气候预测中将2024年的融化事件置于背景中.

主要方法:

对斯瓦尔巴德冰川质量平衡数据的分析.
2024年融化异常与历史记录的比较 (标准偏差).
对全球海平面上升的贡献估计.

主要成果:

斯瓦尔巴德在2024年夏天经历了创纪录的融化季节,异常高于平均水平的四个标准偏差.
全斯瓦尔巴德的质量损失大约为61.7±11.1 Gt,占冰总量的1%,相当于格陵兰岛的融化.
巴伦茨周边地区损失了102.1 ± 22.9 Gt,为海平面上升贡献了0.27 ± 0.06 mm,斯瓦尔巴德贡献了0.16 mm.

结论:

2024年的融化事件是由持续的大气模式的极端温度驱动的,在当前的气候条件下这是罕见的.
未来的气候预测表明,到21世纪末,这种极端温度将变得普遍.
斯瓦尔巴德2024年的融化季节是北极冰川状况预览,大约70年后的未来.

关键词:

北极陆地冰在北极陆地冰.气候变化气候变化气候变化海平面上升的海平面上升

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