基于部形态的骨关节炎风险预测模型:使用来自世界COACH联盟的个人参与者数据进行开发和外部验证
Myrthe A van den Berg1, Fleur Boel1, Michiel M A van Buuren1
1Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Arthritis care & research
|August 19, 2025
概括
这项研究使用部形态学开发了放射性关节骨关节炎 (RHOA) 风险模型. 虽然模型在类似的群体中显示出良好的预测,但形态测量提供了最小的附加值,并在不同人群中显示出不同的表现.
科学领域:
- 整形外科 整形外科 整形外科
- 放射学 放射学是一门学科.
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 放射性关节骨关节炎 (RHOA) 是一种退行性关节疾病.
- 早期风险预测对于及时干预至关重要.
- 部形态是RHOA发展的潜在风险因素.
研究的目的:
- 开发基于部形态的RHOA风险预测模型.
- 评估部形态测量的额外预测价值.
- 评估这些模型在不同人群中的通用性.
主要方法:
- 来自九项前性队列研究 (世界COACH联盟) 的综合数据.
- 协调的RHOA等级和定义的事件RHOA.
- 量化部形态,使用X光片上的侧向中心边缘和α角.
- 使用通用线性混合模型 (GLMM) 和随机森林 (RF) 进行预测,并进行分层和离开一个队列的交叉验证.
主要成果:
- 4.7%的没有确定的RHOA的部在4-8年内发生了RHOA事件.
- 具有部形态的GLMM在分层交叉验证中实现了平均AUC为0.80.
- 基于形态的模型的交叉验证显示异质性表现 (AUC0.56-0.88).
结论:
- 在类似人群中,RHOA风险模型表现出良好的预测性能.
- 部形态测量的增量预测值是有限的.
- 在不同人群中模型的概括性是可变的.
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