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在新的风分类系统下,对风险感知进行实验测试
Jantsje M Mol1,2,3, Nadia Bloemendaal4,5, Hans de Moel4
1Center for Research in Experimental Economics and Political Decision Making (CREED), University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. j.m.mol@hr.nl.
Scientific reports
|August 19, 2025
概括
新的热带气旋严重程度尺度 (TCSS) 改善了风通信,与传统的萨菲尔-辛普森风风量尺度 (SSHWS) 相比,可以更好地了解风险并增加疏散意图. 这种增强的规模有助于个人做出更明智的准备决策.
科学领域:
- 气象学和气候科学 气象学和气候科学
- 风险沟通 风险沟通
- 人类行为和决策过程
背景情况:
- 有效的风通信对于公共安全和准备工作至关重要.
- 目前的风预警尺度,如萨菲尔-辛普森风风量表 (SSHWS),可能无法完全捕捉所有风危险.
- 评估不同预警尺度对公众理解和决策的影响对于改善灾害应对至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较传统的萨菲尔-辛普森风风量表 (SSHWS) 与新开发的热带气旋严重度表 (TCSS) 的有效性.
- 检查这些尺度如何影响对风严重程度,风险感知和疏散/准备决策的理解.
- 评估哪个尺度可以促进风风险沿海地区居民做出更明智的决策.
主要方法:
- 一个大规模的在线实验,约有4000名来自美国沿海州的参与者.
- 一个跨主题设计,将参与者分配到SSHWS或TCSS组.
- 数据收集的重点是理解,风险感知,疏散意图和预防措施.
主要成果:
- 使用TCSS的参与者证明了对风的主要危险的优越识别.
- 与SSHWS相比,TCSS显著增加了疏散意图,当TCSS显示更高的威胁级别时 (例如,由于降雨或风暴潮).
- 虽然TCSS在鼓励适当的预防措施方面表现出积极的趋势,但并不总是具有统计学意义.
结论:
- 热带气旋严重度量表 (TCSS) 提高了对风风险的了解,并促进了比萨菲尔-辛普森风风量表 (SSHWS) 更适当的决策.
- 似乎TCSS是沟通风风险的更有效的工具,可能会带来更好的公共安全结果.
- 进一步的研究和TCSS的潜在采用可以改善风准备和应对工作.
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