为了更可靠的博成本估计,基于人口的研究与注册表链接
Tiina A Latvala1, Matthew Rockloff2, Matthew Browne2
1Department of Promotional and Preventive Work, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Mannerheimintie 166, Helsinki, 00300, Finland. tiina.latvala@thl.fi.
BMC public health
|August 19, 2025
概括
估计博的危害是复杂的. 不同的方法产生截然不同的社会成本估计,贝叶斯定理提供了一种更细致的方法来量化问题博造成的生产力损失.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
背景情况:
- 问题博与严重的社会伤害有关.
- 由于方法上的不一致性,量化博危害的经济负担仍然是一个挑战.
- 关于估计博相关成本的最佳方法缺乏共识.
研究的目的:
- 评估不同的方法来估计问题博的间接成本.
- 为了比较由因果性调整因子 (CAF),过度成本和贝叶斯定理得出的成本估计.
- 专注于18-64岁的成年人长期工作残疾导致的生产力损失.
主要方法:
- 采用了三种不同的成本计算方法:因果关系调整因子 (80%和50%的变化),过度成本和贝叶斯定理.
- 专注于间接成本,特别是长期工作残疾 (病假和残疾养老金) 造成的生产力损失.
- 利用基于人口的博危害调查数据与注册数据联系在一起.
主要成果:
- 这三种方法对生产力损失的估计结果截然不同.
- 超额成本和CAF方法产生了更高的估计 (分别为127.04和123.61 Int$/成年人).
- 贝叶斯定理提供了最低估计值 (8.52 Int$/成年人),这表明了对博因果作用的更保守的衡量标准.
结论:
- 博成本研究中的标准方法,特别是任意因果调整,往往会膨胀成本估计.
- 贝叶斯定理通过考虑时间关系提供了一个强大的方法,以更好地归因于博的危害.
- 使用购买力平价 (PPP) 汇率以国际美元 (Int$) 表示成本,可以提高跨国可比性.
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