在不丹 (2011-2019) 口热的空间和时间流行病学 (2011-2019)
Sangay Letho1,2, Chris Compton3
1Regional Livestock Development Centre, Department of Livestock, Khangma, Trashigang, Bhutan. sletho@moal.gov.bt.
BMC veterinary research
|August 19, 2025
概括
不丹的口病 (FMD) 疫情显示出显著的空间和时间聚类,特别是在西部和南部地区. 了解这些模式对于有效的病控制策略至关重要.
科学领域:
- 兽医流行病学 兽医流行病学
- 疾病生态学 疾病生态学
- 空间分析 空间分析
背景情况:
- 口病 (FMD) 给不丹的畜牧业带来了重大的社会经济挑战.
- 经常出现的口热疫情需要更好地了解疾病动态,以便有效控制.
研究的目的:
- 调查2011-2019年不丹口热疫情的空间和时间模式.
- 确定口热发生的高风险地区和时期,以告知控制策略.
主要方法:
- 利用了9年的国家口热爆发数据 (2011-2019).
- 采用空间自相关性 (K函数) 和集群分析 (库尔多夫空间扫描统计).
- 进行了回顾性时空分析和季节性/趋势检查,使用共模型.
主要成果:
- 检测到口热爆发的显著全球空间自相关性 (p < 0.02).
- 在不丹西部确定了两个主要疫情集群 (帕罗,廷普,普纳卡,王杜普德朗区).
- 在不丹西南部 (2018-2019) 发生了22次爆发的显著时空集群,并注意到冬季季节性.
结论:
- 西部和南部的不丹表现出最高的口病发病率,具有显著的空间和空间-时间集群.
- 这些特有群体,特别是在西部监测区,对不丹的口热控制进展构成威胁.
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