气候-流感动态的时间变化:跨越COVID-19时代的中国南部多个亚型分析
Lirong Zhang1, Jiajia Lin1, Jiaxiong Zheng1
1School of Public Health, Shantou University, Shantou 515041, China.
Transboundary and emerging diseases
|August 20, 2025
概括
在中国南部,COVID-19大流行改变了流感A和B的传播动态. 空气污染和可见性等环境因素现在显示出不同流感亚型的流行后不同影响和值.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 病毒学 病毒学
- 机器学习在公共卫生中的应用.
背景情况:
- 随着COVID-19的流行,全球呼吸道病毒的传播模式发生了重大变化.
- 了解气象和空气污染因素对流感A亚型和B血统的影响至关重要,特别是在流行病过渡期间.
研究的目的:
- 调查气象和空气污染驱动因素如何影响中国南部的季节性流感A (H1N1,H3N2) 和B (维多利亚血统) 传播.
- 分析这些影响在流行前,流行期间和流行后的时期.
- 量化环境因素的动态贡献,并确定流感传播的气候值.
主要方法:
- 对每周流感监测数据 (2011-2024) 和中国南部相应的气象数据的分析.
- 使用可解释的机器学习框架 (XG-Boost和SHapley增材扩展 - SHAP) 来评估环境因素的贡献.
- 采用通用添加模型 (GAM) 来确定影响流感传播的气候值.
主要成果:
- 流行后的流感循环显示出显著的亚型特定转变:A/H3N2阳性几乎增加了三倍,A/H1N1增加了四倍以上,与流行前水平相比,B/Victoria显著下降.
- 环境驱动层次结构进行了重组;对于A/H3N2,PM10的影响有显著的变化 (9.18%的流行前,30.37%的流行期间,3.95%的流行后),而可见性在流行后占主导地位 (58.05%).
- 湿度和可见度表现出亚型特定的环境值,在促进和抑制区域之间转移,表明气候变化与流感的关系.
结论:
- 流行病时代的干扰重新调整了中国南部流感传播的环境驱动因素.
- 新的环境门和重组的驱动层次揭示了病毒气候关系的重大转变.
- 鉴定流感亚型的独特"促进-抑制"区域为了解气候-病原体相互作用提供了一个新的范式,需要整合到监测和预测模型中.
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