估计目前和未来的次轨道太空旅游产业造成的二氧化碳排放
Angela M Huang1,2, Yangyang Xu2
1Ronald Reagan High School, San Antonio, Texas, United States of America.
PloS one
|August 20, 2025
概括
每个乘客每小时的二氧化碳排放量是商业航班的400-1000倍. 未来的增长可能会对全球排放产生重大影响,因此需要更加关注这一新兴行业.
科学领域:
- 环境科学
- 航空航天工程
- 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 2030年和2050年的温室气体排放目标至关重要.
- 太空旅游,特别是次轨道飞行,正在迅速扩大.
- 太空旅游产生的二氧化碳排放数据有限.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个分析模型来估计次轨道飞行中的二氧化碳排放.
- 将次轨道旅游和商业航空的二氧化碳排放强度进行比较.
- 根据行业的增长来预测未来的二氧化碳排放.
主要方法:
- 基于物理原理和运动学的分析模型.
- 考虑了航天器的变化,燃料类型 (液态,RP-1,HTPB,甲) 和飞行阶段.
- 每个乘客每小时的二氧化碳排放量和年度总排放量.
主要成果:
- 每个乘客每小时的二氧化碳排放量是商业航空的400-1000倍.
- 液态和甲燃料的直接排放量较低,但产生的间接排放量很大.
- 传统燃料 (RP-1,HTPB) 的二氧化碳排放量显著增加.
- 预计十年内每年的二氧化碳排放量可能达到21万,相当于整个国家.
结论:
- 太空旅游的二氧化碳排放强度不成比例.
- 燃料生产对整体碳足迹的贡献很大.
- 亚轨道旅游业的快速增长带来了相当大的未来气候风险.
- 对于次轨道旅行的二氧化碳排放需要更多的关注和监管.
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