轮胎磨损排放量的量化和绘制:从欧盟区域分析到全球预测
Yichen Sun1, Jikke van Wijnen2, Ad M J Ragas3
1Department of Environmental Science, Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Radboud University, Nijmegen, the Netherlands.
Environment international
|August 20, 2025
概括
轮胎磨损颗粒 (TWP) 的排放对微塑料污染有很大影响. 这项研究揭示了TWP排放的广泛差异,并开发了更好的全球估计预测模型.
科学领域:
- 环境科学
- 化学工程
- 材料科学
背景情况:
- 轮胎磨损颗粒 (TWPs) 是全球微塑料污染的主要来源.
- 估计TWP排放涉及多种方法,导致国家差异很大.
研究的目的:
- 分析国家TWP排放估计的变化.
- 为优化TWP排放估计提供指导.
- 使用社会经济变量开发TWP排放的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 对不同欧洲国家TWP排放估计方法的比较分析.
- 基于社会经济数据的普通最小方程 (OLS) 和随机森林 (RF) 预测模型的开发.
- 用于模型准确性评估的交叉验证 (LOOCV).
主要成果:
- 在欧洲各国观察到人均排放差异很大 (高达2公斤/年).
- 德国,法国和意大利被确定为主要排放国 (>100,000/年).
- 随机森林模型实现了高预测精度 (LOOCV R2>0.7),表现优于OLS.
结论:
- 由方法和国家特定因素影响的TWP排放具有显著的变化.
- 预测模型为全球TWP排放预测提供了强大的框架,减少了数据要求.
- 卢森堡,美国,中国和印度被确定为人均和总TWP排放的关键国家.
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